New York Yankees (82-64) wrap up their three-game series with the
Baltimore Orioles (46-99) Thursday at Camden Yards with the first pitch scheduled for 5:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the
Yankees vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won the first two games of the series. The Yankees rallied back with a 2-run top of the 9th after Yankees RHP
Chad Green squandered their lead in the bottom of the 8th to pick up a 4-3 win in Wednesday’s contest.
Season series: Yankees lead 11-7.
Jordan Montgomery is New York’s projected starter. Montgomery is 5-6 with a 3.71 ERA (138 1/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 26 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 10-3, with 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K Friday at the New York Mets.
- Montgomery is 1-0 in four starts against Baltimore this season with a 3.86 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 22 H, 5 BB and 17 K.
- vs. Orioles on the current roster (99 PA): 2.34 FIP with a .275 batting average (BA), .289 wOBA, .294 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.3 K% and 86.1 mph exit velocity (EV).
Chris Ellis gets the nod for the Orioles. Ellis is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across four starts and one relief appearance for the Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays.
- Last outing: No-decision in Baltimore’s 6-3 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays Friday with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster (17 PA): 4.42 FIP with a .071 BA, .195 wOBA, .692 xSLG, 11.8 K% and 86.3 mph EV.
Yankees at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction
Money line: Yankees -260 (bet $260 to win $160) | Orioles +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -2.5 (-112) | Orioles +2.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Yankees 6, Orioles 2
Money line (ML)
PASS even though New York is the right side because the Yankees (-260) is too expensive given they are just 4-6 over the past 10 games and 8-12 in the last 20.
New York typically owns Baltimore in the season head-to-head matchups but that’s not the case this season. In fact, New York has a 58.8% winning rate against Baltimore in 2021 but the implied win probability of the Yankees (-260) is 72.22%.
The math says to
PASS on the Yankees in this spot.
“LEAN” to the
YANKEES -2.5 (-112) for a tiny wager – if at all – because we rarely see a 2.5-run favorite in baseball and all of New York’s perceived edges are accounted for in this pricing.
However, New York has the far superior team (on paper) and Baltimore is 26-40 ATS against AL East teams and 27-37 ATS as a home underdog.
The lack of run support provided by New York’s lineup in Montgomery starts is criminal. The Yankees are averaging just 4 runs scored per game in Montgomery’s outings and he’s only won five of 11 starts where he’s allowed 1 or 0 ER.
New York’s lineup has been inconsistent at best this season. Over the last two weeks, the Yankees batters rank 24th in WAR, 22nd in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA. On the other hand, Montgomery has been lights out and Baltimore’s lineup is below-average in most advanced hitting categories.
UNDER 10.5 (-125) for a full unit and I’m more confident since it’s the more expensive side of the total. The added vigorish to the Under suggests the House has liability towards the Under and wants to dissuade people from betting on it.
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Source : https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/2021/09/16/new-york-yankees-at-baltimore-orioles-odds-picks-and-prediction-9/966